India is unbeatable on this ground but can expect South Africa despite the competition.India have never lost a Test match at the Wanderers. They have two wins and three draws here, and one of those draws - in January 1997 - could have been a win had rain not intervened on the final day.
India spent a large chunk of 2021 breaching fortresses around the world. They now begin 2022 at a venue that's been something of an away fortress for them.
It's hard to say if it's just a statistical oddity or if something deeper is at work, but in either case, this will be a slightly different Wanderers Test. Never before have India gone into one as favourites, but they do so now, while already 1-0 up in the series. They're expected to win, and to wrap up their first-ever series victory in South Africa.
But South Africa are still the home side, and while India were magnificent in Centurion, they also won a crucial toss that allowed them to bat on the only day of the Test match on which you'd rather have been a batter than a bowler. South Africa bowled poorly on that first day, particularly in the first session, but this was also partly down to rustiness. Lungi Ngidi, for example, came into the Test match without any red-ball cricket since June and any serious cricket since October, but was a vastly improved force from the second session on, finishing with match figures of 8 for 102.
The gap between these two sides in South African conditions, then, may not be as big as it appeared last week.
Will keep an eye on Rahane and Pujara
Cheteshwar Pujara and Ajinkya Rahane looked in reasonable and excellent nick in Centurion, respectively, but ended up with three soft dismissals and a top score of 48 between them. While it seems unlikely that either will miss out at the Wanderers, a continued lack of runs could put their places under scrutiny.
