Confident South Africa Will Win The Match

This time last week South Africa were wondering what had hit them so hard that it was difficult for many to believe they could stagger to their feet in time to be floored again in the same ring. A week on, they're still wondering what hit them. But now they have a game to win. Yes, to win. 

 

How had the astonishing turnaround been engineered? The South Africans had five days to try and pull themselves together before they had to return to Hagley Oval for the second Test.We're We're not really sure what went wrong," Rassie van der Dussen told an online press conference on Sunday about New Zealand's emphatic victory in the first Test. The visitors have given themselves a decent chance of denying New Zealand what would be their first Test series success over South Africa. "We prepared well and we knew what conditions we had, in terms of the swing and the grass on the wicket." Despite that the Kiwis won by an innings and 276 runs in only seven sessions, inflicting South Africa's second-heaviest defeat.

"We didn't change too much in terms of preparation for this Test," Van der Dussen said. "Maybe it's that extra week of getting used to the conditions and knowing what their bowlers are doing." 

Maybe this is less about changing conditions and more about lived experience: they knew they could do this because they had already done it. But that doesn't fully explain how a side who were bowled out for 95 and 111 and lost Zubayr Hamza - one of their sturdier batters in that catastrophe of a first innings - to a thumb injury faced the identical attack days later and made 364.That That the pitch is browner, slower and, Van der Dussen said, drier than the surface used in the first Test is a major factor in the South Africans' resurrection. 

"We've been under pressure before, in the previous series as well," Van der Dussen said, an allusion to South Africa's rousing fightback after losing the first Test of their home rubber against India in December and January to win the last two matches. "The way we came back said a lot about where we are."

In the second innings, they were 38/3 when Van der Dussen and Temba Bavuma started a partnership that swelled to 65. "We need to get to the 300 [lead] mark and hope it deteriorates so the spinner can come into the game," Van der Dussen said. "If they can show some character at the crease, I think it will go a long way." How long would that way have to be? New Zealand haven't selected a specialist spinner in seven of those 11 matches, and not for five games now. Almost as rare at this ground as the inclusion of someone of Maharaj's ilk. They were 302/8 in the first innings before Marco Jansen and Keshav Maharaj shared 62, a record for South Africa's eighth wicket against New Zealand.

Before Before last week, South Africa had never played a Test at Hagley Oval. Neither for pointing out that Hagley Oval is a faster, more exciting, all-round better pitch in keeping with the modern game. No prizes for guessing which of those innings was more in keeping with the way Gibbs played. Their last match in the format in Christchurch was at Lancaster Park in March 1999, when Herschelle Gibbs batted for almost 11 hours and faced 468 balls - both career highs - for his undefeated 211. Even so, it was an unknown quantity for the South Africans prior to the first Test, and they would have been forgiven for being fearful of it after that disaster.

The current highest successful fourth innings at Hagley Oval is the 201/3 Australia made in February 2016. Teams who have had a fourth innings here have won five times, and lost just once. The solitary instance of a team being dismissed in the fourth innings was in December 2018, when Sri Lanka were bowled out for 236 chasing 660.Already, Already, New Zealand will have to score more runs than any side have done to win a Test here. For which team remains deliciously uncertain, but, after last week, even that will feel like success for the South Africans. With little chance of rain predicted for Monday and a marginal 40% chance of scattered showers forecast for Tuesday, victory seems inevitable.